Monday, 14 January 2013

Whacky Predictor of Futureness: 2013 Stanley Cup



The fact I'm doing this again might seem odd, given how unequivocally wrong I was last year, but it was fun, so shut up.

This year, I'm picking the hard-working, dynamic, pretty much completely awesome St. Louis Blues to win the West, while I have the Senators as the surprise Eastern finalist.  Ooooo.  What?  So I like my darkhorses.  So sue me.

As usual, I'm operating under the incorrect assumption that the trade deadline effectively doesn't exist.  For example, I won't have Jay Bouwmeester lining up for the Blues simply because I think the Blues and Flames would be good trade partners.  You know, just to pick a name and team right off the top of my head, for no reason.


Originally, I was going to do in-depth team comparisons, but then I realized that would take a long time and I have homework to do, and all that.  Instead, I'll sum it up like this: Backes, Steen, Pietrangelo, Karlsson, Spezza, and Alfredsson are all awesome (and Tarasenko and Silfverberg are both on the cusp of awesomeness).

The series

David Backes makes a name for himself with 4 OT winners--2 of them series winners--in the first 3 rounds
The Blues reach the final after a relatively easy playoff.  They finish 3rd, edging out the Chicago Blackhawks for 1st in the Central division.  After ousting the upstart Minnesota Wild in 4 games (thanks to 3 overtime goals by David Backes), and then division rivals Chicago in 5 (a hat trick in game 5 by Alex Pietrangelo seals the Hawks' fate), the Blues face off against the Kings in the Western Final.  After 7 games, a 4th OT game winner by Backes sinks Los Angeles' hopes of a repeat.

Jakob Silfverberg establishes himself with 3 series winning goals
The Sens, on the other hand, sneak in by the skin of their teeth.  They finish 6th (not a bad spot) and face the Capitals in round 1, followed by the New York Rangers in round 2.  They win the series in 6 and 7 games, respectively, and then beat the Bruins in the final, also in 7 games (rookie Jakob Silfverberg makes himself something of a folk hero with 3 series winning goals (5 total)).

Game 1 - Senators 3 @ Blues 2

Alfie's late game-winner spoils the Blues' comeback bid
2 quick goals by Jakob Silfverberg in the 1st period chase an oddly shaky Halak from the Blues' net.  The Blues go to work for the rest of the game, eventually tying it after goals in the 2nd and 3rd periods by Alex Steen and Scott Nichol.  The Blues' high gets shot down, though, as a Daniel Alfredsson goal late in the 3rd period gives the Sens the win.

Game 2 - Senators 0 @ Blues 2

Jaro Halak rebounds for the shutout in game 2
Ken Hitchcock makes an interesting coaching decision by starting Halak in game 2.  He is not disappointed. Powerplay goals by Andy McDonald and Alex Pietrangelo in the 2nd period are the only scoring in the game, as the Blues walk away with a tied series (and a shutout for Halak).

Game 3 - Blues 4 @ Senators 3

Alex Steen's poise is paramount in the Blues' balanced attack
With the series moving to Ottawa, game 3 is a wild one.  After Jason Spezza opens the scoring on the powerplay, David Backes ties it short handed.  In the 2nd period, Shattenkirk scores on the back door on a pass from Pietrangelo, only to have the game tied by an Erik Karlsson 1-timer 3 minutes later.  In the 3rd, Eric Condra thinks he gets the Sens the win on a Colin Greening rebound, only to have Alex Steen tie the game once more.  With a second and a half left, Vladimir Tarasenko sends his teammates into a frenzy with a highlight reel goal, and the win.

Game 4 - Blues 2 @ Senators 3 (OT)

Talented Michalek finally has an impact on the series
The Sens get revenge in game 4 in an OT thriller.  After a 4 goal 1st period (scored sequentially by Chris Neil, Milan Michalek, Patrik Berglund, and Chris Stewart), the game devolves into an end-to-end, shot-to-shot, save-to-save, hit-to-hit all-out offensive melee backstopped by the overachieving goalies at either end. It's more of the same in overtime, until the 3rd extra period when Milan Michalek finishes the contest with his 2nd of the game.

Game 5 - Sens 1 @ Blues 5

Pietrangelo's up-tempo and well-rounded game leads to domination of the Senators
This is where the Blues finally show their superiority at both ends.  They out shoot the hapless Sens 49 - 19, and make mincemeat out of the Sens' defense, who can only watch as the Ottawa forwards come out flat.  The Blues get goals from 5 different scorers, with goals from David Backes, David Perron, Alex Steen, Vladimir Sobotka, and Alex Pietrangelo.  Erik Karlsson scores the only Sens goal.

Game 6 - Blues 2 @ Senators 1 (OT)

Tarasenko's cup winner looks a little like this
Unfortunately, the Senators don't get a chance to stave off elimination.  After checkers Scott Nichol and Chris Neil trade goals in the 2nd period, the game goes to extra time.  With 3 minutes to go, Jakob Silfverberg eats the crossbar at one end, only to have Kevin Shattenkirk move the puck quickly up ice to Tarasenko, who roofs his second of the series--and gives the Blues their first Stanley Cup.

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