Monday, 1 July 2013

Shades of Grey: Calgary Flames 2013 Draft Report Card



So the 2013 NHL Entry Draft is over and done with (man, that was long..).  The Flames have filled out their "most important draft in franchise history." There are 8 brand shiny new members of the Calgary Flames organization (and 211 new members of the NHL family)

Before I get down to business, a few thoughts:



The Chicago Blackhawks made what was easily the worst series of moves of the day (not New York Islanders this year, amazing!).  I'm not talking about their draft selections (which, oddly enough, were limited to American and Swedish skaters).  No, I'm talking about trades.  First, they traded David Bolland to the Leafs for an odd assortment of draft picks.  You know, because the guy who scored the Stanley Cup winning goal is useless.  Then, they moved Michael Frolik to the Jets for an even odder assortment of choices.  All this, so they could sign Bryan "Flash in the Pan" Bickell to a bad contract.  Hilariously, it's basically the same contract the Avs signed David Jones to a few years ago.  It'll probably turn out to be just as fruitful. Jones, at least, had a tiny bit of precedent to sort of warrant the contract (two consecutive 20 goal seasons).  There was a slim chance he might have suddenly become a high-percentage shooter, whereas Bickell was somehow worth 4 million dollars for a decent playoff.  At the age of 27.  Good move.

Speaking of David Jones, the Flames have been sort of busy of late.  It started when they flipped their 4th round pick (which could have been used on Jordan Subban *sniffle*) for a decent prospect named Corban Knight.  I'll admit that I don't know a whole lot about Knight, but I was a little familiar with him before the trade.  A good, solid, two-way forward, Knight can play all three forward positions.  He was a finalist for the Hobey Baker award this year (awarded to the "best" player in College hockey) in spite of the fact that he was only second on his team in scoring (behind Montreal prospect Danny Kristo).  That speaks to the sort of player Knight is.  The reaction to the trade was overwhelmingly positive--effusively so.  #Knightfacts was hilarious.

The Flames' business continued when they made a rather pointless trade with the Avalanche.  Alex Tanguay and Cory Sarich (two players who have recently been noted as having wanted out of the sinking ship that is my poor Calgary Flames) for the aformentioned Davey Jones and thuggish defenseman Shane O'Brien.  O'Brien is essentially a straight-across deal with Sarich (though he is, in fact, 5 years younger, he is the same quality right now).  He won't bring much to the Flames aside from pugnaciousness (which is, evidently, a word).  David Jones serves the Flames perceived need to become bigger and tougher (which is stupid, considering the cup-winning Blackhawks were dead last in the league in hits last season), but he won't add much else.  Ideally, he's a bottom six forward, but in Calgary (unless they hold on to Mike Cammalleri) he is likely a top six guy, which is annoying.  Tanguay probably won't bring as much to the Avalanche as the Colorado fans are hoping, but he is still a useful player when his team has the puck (and in shootouts), as his distribution skills are still top-notch.

Apparently, the Flames talked a lot to the Bruins about trading for Tyler Seguin.  Holly crap.  I like Monahan (more on that later) but man.  Seguin.  In Calgary.  Imagine what that would have done for the Battle of Alberta.  There was even talk after the Flames made their pick that they might still do the trade AND KEEP MONAHAN.  That would have blown my mind, though it likely would have looked something like Baertschi, Backlund, and Gaudreau.  Still.  Seguin.  In Calgary.

In other unsubstantiated "news" the Flames were apparently in talks with Vincent Lecavalier.  Sigh.

The Flyers made an extremely odd pick at 11 when they took Sam Morin (which was a bit of foreshadowing for a Flames 3rd rounder....).  I mean, if you're taking a giant shutdown defender that high, it might as well be Nikita Zadorov, right?  Also, why wouldn't they get a long-term replacement for Kimmo Timmonen (and Mark Streit) by looking at Ryan Pulock or Josh Morrissey?

So that whole Corey Schneider/Roberto Luongo thing finally got resolved.  Um.  I guess.  That was weird.  The Canucks are still rubbing up against the cap, and now they're short a goalie.  Apparently they waived Keith Ballard, but is that enough?  They only have 9 forwards under contract (10 if you count Brendan Gaunce) and one of their 6 defenders is Frank Corrado, with Chris Tanev still unsigned... They may still have to buy the big guy out.

Hilariously, Mike Gillis attempted to claim he had planned to trade Schneider all along.  What a tool.

The Flames still have to sign their RFAs.  Notable names include Mikael Backlund and TJ Brodie.  Any day now, Feaster.

The Flames also have to sign Karri Ramo the instant Free Agency starts.  I hope Ramo's agent is on speed dial.

Mortifyingly, Roberts Lipsbergs slipped through the cracks in yet another draft.

Well, got a little carried away there.  I haven't been back for a while, so sue me.

To the draft:

For the second year in a row, the Flames managed to evade every player on my Draft Targets Post.  In fact, Sean Monahan* was a deliberate omission to test if my blog was, indeed, cursed.  That appears to be the case.

*- Darnell Nurse was also a deliberate omission, but for a different reason.  Chalk it up to lack of familiarity.  I was, originally, going to include him, but I opted not to since the writing would have been sparse and uninteresting.

I just want to say before I begin, that I feel bad giving bad grades to young men like these.  I mean, I'm sure it's the last thing they want to see after joining an NHL organization.  I'd just like to say to anyone who I give an 'F' to--though they'll almost certainly never see it anyway--that I gave an 'F' to the Jon Gillies selection last season.  So far, it looks like I'll be eating some major crow on that one for a while.

First Round:

6th overall, Sean Monahan, C

For those of you who have followed this blog, you might know that I was looking at Elias Lindholm as the prime target (well, it was actually Sasha Barkov, but I was fully aware he would be gone by 6th).  I essentially saw the 6th overall as "Lindholm or Monahan"-- as many did--and my personal choice was the Swede.  Still, I acknowledged that the smart money was on Monahan.  It ended up not mattering at all, since Lindholm was taken 5th by Carolina.  As a result, this pick could not have gone better.
Good: Monahan is tall (6'2"), he's a center, and he has significant offensive ability--plus, he's no stranger to being the centerpiece of his teams' offense.  He is excellent defensively, and while he doesn't play a physical game, he does use his size and strength to his advantage, especially when he has the puck.
Bad: There really isn't a lot to say here, though Monahan isn't a great skater.  A possible reason for that may be that he's still rather slender for his height.  Is it possible that his speed improves as he gains strength?  I hope so.
Upside: A decent first line center who can control the play in a methodical fashion (the perfect linemate for Sven Baertschi, actually).
Grade: A.  Nichushkin has higher-end tools, but his results have been underwhelming, and he doesn't seem to use his linemates very well.
Random: Monahan has a really deep voice.  Also, "Sean Monahan" is just about the most Irish name I've ever heard.

22nd overall, Emile Poirier, W

I did not see this pick coming in a million years.  I was all set to celebrate the addition of Hunter Shinkaruk to the Flames family, and was dumbfounded when it didn't happen.  After doing a little digging, and seeing some interviews and youtube videos, I'm more mollified about this pick.  Poirier is a large, skilled winger with speed to burn.  He is listed at LW, but can play either side (as most wingers can, but the fact that it's mentioned means that he's probably a natural RW like Rene Bourque).
Good: Poirier led his team in points by a wide margin (though 20 year old Tomas Hyka had a better scoring rate) and plays a fairly engaged style.  His breakaway speed appears to be quite good, and he has solid hands.  Has a good shot and can score from mid-range.
Bad: Well, the confusion is a good start.  He was generally ranked as a second rounder.  His previous season was fairly unimpressive, thus there may be a bit of Mark McNeill syndrome with this one.  We won't know for at least one year, though.
Upside: A good top six winger who can kill you with speed.
Grade: B-
Random: His name makes me think "Hercule Poirot".

28th overall, Morgan Klimchuk, LW

I know.  Yet another left wing.  Still, Klimchuk is a decent pick late in the first.  He's the sort of guy who's good at everything, and can be trusted in all situations.  He had a pretty good season on a not-very-good team, and the only teammate who outscored him was three years his senior.  Still, he doesn't seem like a high-upside pick; more of a very safe one.  Still, my reaction to the Flames selecting the local product was mostly one of satisfaction.
Good: Klimchuk has good all-around skills.  He's a smart, gritty winger with good hands and excellent skating.  He is very effective in all three zones, with and without the puck, and has some very good powerplay skill.
Bad: Mainly upside.  There are questions about whether his offense will translate.  He is also a bit on the small side at 5'11" 181 (Baertschi size).
Upside: A good two-way middle rotation winger who can move up and down the lineup.
Grade: B+
Random: There's something odd about his eyes.  Like he's a little cross-eyed or something.

Third round:

67th overall, Keegan Kanzig, D

The Flames kind of tossed "the board" out the window with this one, taking a defender who managed all of 7 points last season (no goals) for the Royals.
Good: He's gigantic (6'7", 240 pounds).  He also apparently showed some signs of life for Victoria in the playoffs against Kamloops.
Bad: No offense to speak of, and he takes a lot of penalties.  Reports on his skating conflict, but it's difficult to imagine he moves all that well, given his size.
Upside: It's difficult to imagine him being anything more than a thug in the NHL.  Of course, Zdeno Chara didn't look all that impressive (aside from being huge, of course) at the same age.
Grade: gotta go with the gut on this one. F

Fifth round:

135th overall, Eric Roy, D

Now here is a pick I can get behind.  Months ago, Roy was considered a challenger for a first round selection.  Over the course of last season, questions arose--mainly involving his defensive game which, given his position, is a big deal.  As a result, his stock absolutely plummetted, and now here we sit, with a high-upside but high-risk defender taken in the fifth round of the NHL draft.  Roy is big (6'3") and characterizes himself as a two way defenseman.  He'll have to get better at defending in order for that self-evaluation to make sense, though.  In interviews, he repeats (ad nauseum) the need to work hard at his game.  So there's that.
Good: He moves well for a bigger guy, and has some solid offensive upside (as evidenced by decent results the last two years).
Bad: Some scouts say he's absolutely lost in his own zone, which isn't only concerning but terrifying given the position he plays.  He also may have been propped up somewhat by his linemate, Ryan Pulock.
Upside: It's hard to say, but he looks like he could be a good top four defender if he figures everything out.  If not, there's a slim chance he could carve out a niche career like Marc-Andre Bergeron.
Grade: A-. A pick like this in the 5th round is intriguing.

Sixth round:

157th overall, Tim Harrison, RW

He's a 6'3" US highschool player bound for Colgate University who was passed over in last year's draft.  Beyond that, I know nothing.
Grade: W.  I just don't know enough to make an assessment.  My gut tells me it's a 'D' or something.

Seventh round:

187th overall, Rushan Rafikov, D

My first thought is: That's a hell of a name.  Again, I know little of Rafikov, but what I've learned in the last day or so is that he's a mobile rearguard who's good at both ends.  He played for Russia at the U18s a few months ago, playing in all 7 games and scoring 5 assists, 10 penalty minutes, and a +6 rating.  I wonder if he may have fallen in the draft because he's Russian, though he did put up rather modest stats in the Russian junior league last season.  Maybe we'll see him at the WJC, and can get a better assessment there.
Grade: B+.  It's difficult to get too exited about a 7th round pick, but Rafikov appears to have been a worthwhile gamble.
Random: Rafikov is the first European the Flames have drafted since Markus Granlund (a span of 16 consecutive picks).  He's also the first Russian the Flames have taken since Viktor Bobrov, back in 2002.  Yes, I had to look that one up.

198th overall, John Gilmour, D

Gilmour is a puck moving defender for the Providence College Friars (the same team as Mark Jankowski and Jon Gillies), so I'm sure the Flames have seen a lot of him.  This seems like a worthwhile pick in the last round of the draft, so long as the Flames actually like Gilmour rather than taking him because they didn't scout the 7th round at all.  It's not a high-upside move, but then again, there is such thing as a late bloomer.
Grade: C
Random: Gilmour was passed over in two drafts.  He was originally eligible in 2011, the same draft as Johnny Gaudreau and Sven Baertschi.  This is likely due to his size, as he is fairly small for a defenseman (the same size as Sven).

Overall: B-

The Sean Monahan pick really props this one up, as he's basically exactly what the organization needed.  The Eric Roy and Rushan Rafikov picks offset the Kanzig oddity, and the fact that the Harrison thing happened in the 6th round mitigates most of the potential harm.  All in all, it was good, not great.  Could have been better (at least optically; I'm no expert) but it could have been much worse, as well (Zach Fucale in the first round).

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