Adjusted rankings. The skinny's for each player have been edited with new observations, while the NHL comparisons, futures, and ETA's have been streamlined.
1. Sven Baertschi LW, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
He looks strong on his skates and brimming with confidence. I think Derek Smith might have to find a new number next season.
NHL Future: A strong 2-way winger who can handle tough assignments. Used in all situations.
ETA: 1 year.
NHL Comparison: Martin Havlat.
2. Leland Irving G, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
We have seen both ends of his performance spectrum now. He's looked like an NHL goalie, though his last two NHL starts have been during weak streaks of his. The constant movement from the AHL to the NHL and back probably isn't helping his comfort level. On the whole, I've liked what I've seen. There doesn't seem to be quite as much variance to his game as I had feared.
NHL Future: A solid 1A or B goalie. He might be sharing NHL duties with Karri Ramo as soon as the 2013/14 season.
ETA: 1 or 2 years.
NHL Comparison: Carey Price.
3. Max Reinhart C, Kootenay Ice (WHL)
He's been fighting some injuries of late. I still have high hopes, however.
NHL Future: Prototypical hard-minutes center. Likely playing on a 2nd or 3rd line, but being fed tough matchups and defensive starts.
ETA: 1 or 2 years.
NHL Comparison: Manny Malhotra or Eric Belanger.
4. Greg Nemisz RW, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
This last call up has been by far his best, in spite of his lack of points. He's been highly effective at even strength for the first time in his young NHL career; strong at both ends of the ice. He WILL be an NHL player, likely starting next season unless the Flames choose to retain most of their veterans.
NHL Future: A middle rotation or bottom 6 forward who plays in all situations at all positions, while adding a little offense.
ETA: 1 year or less.
NHL Comparison: David Moss.
5. John Gaudreau LW, Boston College (NCAA HE)
Johnny Gaudreau makes a jump in my rankings due to a torrid scoring pace over the second half of the NCAA season. He is currently 2nd in BC scoring to Chris Kreider.
NHL Future: He looks like a Patrick O'Sullivan type secondary scorer. If the Flames are lucky, he might end up being a similar player to Nashville's Sergei Kostitsyn.
ETA: could be as much as 5 years.
NHL Comparison: Patrick O'Sullivan.
6. Roman Horak C, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
Holy cripes is he fast!! I mean, wow! He's weirdly good at limiting scoring chances against, especially for a young player.
NHL Future: 2-way forward with offensive talent and a lot of speed.
ETA: 1 year or less.
NHL Comparison: Frans Nielsen.
7. Bill Arnold C, Boston College (NCAA HE)
He slips in my rankings mainly because my giddiness from the WJC has worn off.
NHL Future: A robust defensive forward with scoring ability.
ETA: 2 or 3 years.
NHL Comparison: Michal Handzus.
8. Michael Ferland LW, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
Has crested 40 goals, and was (relatively) recently named the WHL's player of the week.
NHL Future: Gritty 3rd line forward with soft hands.
ETA: 2 or 3 years, maybe more.
NHL Comparison: T.J. Galiardi.
9. Markus Granlund C/RW, HIFK (SM-liiga)
He slips slightly, but he's still doing better than I expected this season. Of course, he's been playing on a line with Mikael Granlund for most of the season, though Mikael has been injured recently. At first, Markus had only 1 point in 6 games, but he has come on strong with 4 in his last 2. He has 34 in 47 games.
NHL Future: A secondary scoring forward with slow skating and some defensive awareness.
ETA: 2 or 3 years. That might be optimistic.
NHL Comparison: Sam Gagner.
10. John Ramage D, University of Wisconsin (NCAA WCHA)
Captained a bad team into the playoffs, though they lost in the first round. He was ejected from a game a few months ago for a vicious hit (that was, in truth, clean).
NHL Future: Heavy-hitting shutdown defenseman.
ETA: 1 or 2 years.
NHL Comparison: Andrew Ference.
11. Ryan Howse LW, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
Has been on a mini tear since recording his first professional point (a goal) about a month ago. Is one of the few players on the Heat who is scoring. He's currently playing on a line with Akim Aliu, more's the pity.
NHL Future: top 6 or bust.
ETA: 3, 4, 5 years. Who can guess?
NHL Comparison: Dany Heatley.
12. Tyler Wotherspoon D, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Not much to report. He's boring as they come. Can you handle the awesome?
NHL Future: Heavy-hitting bottom pair defenseman who kills penalties.
ETA: 3 years.
NHL Comparison: Jim Vandermeer.
13. Paul Byron C, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
Spent a little time injured and recently returned to the Heat lineup. I doubt he'll see any more NHL time this season.
NHL Future: A middle rotation winger who is lauded for his speed if nothing else.
ETA: 1 year.
NHL Comparison: Blake Comeau.
14. Joni Ortio G, TPS (SM-liiga)
Sent to the Finnish league for ice time, and has been TPS's starter ever since. His stats are unimpressive at first glance, but considering he plays for such a bad team, and 2 of his 3 wins are shut-outs, it is forgivable.
NHL Future: Talented, inconsistent netminder.
ETA: too long to figure.
NHL Comparison: Miikka Kiprusoff.
15. Joey Leach D, Kootenay Ice (WHL)
Enjoyed a 3-point game last week. His play has elevated slightly as the games have become more important. It is a tad frightening that he's his team's best defenseman, but he hasn't disappointed... much. I read a scouting report recently that claimed he was a good skater. I laughed.
NHL Future: Bottom pair shutdown defenseman.
ETA: 4 years.
NHL Comparision: Cory Sarich.
16. Chris Breen D, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
Same-old, same-old. No doubt you've noticed he's slipped 2 spots in my ranking. I shouldn't have had him that high in the first place.
NHL Future: Likely a bottom pair stay-at-home defenseman at most. Like Keith Aulie.
ETA: 1 maybe 2 years. He really doesn't have a lot of development to do, though he does need to improve his skating.
NHL Comparison: Hal Gill.
17. Laurent Brossoit G, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)
Starting goalie for the WHL's best team.
NHL Future: He already looks better than when he was drafted. A large, reasonably consistent goalie whose positioning needs to be constantly monitored.
ETA: 8 years?
NHL Comparison: Roberto Luongo.
18. Lance Bouma LW, Calgary Flames (NHL)
If the Flames decide not to re-sign Tom Kostopoulos, this young man could replace him without a wink. I like Kosto, but I like Bouma more.
NHL Future: 4th line forward.
ETA: imminent.
NHL Comparison: Brandon Prust.
19. Mitch Wahl C, Utah Grizzlies (ECHL)
He was a depth forward on a bad team (the Hamilton Bulldogs, on loan from the Heat). He has since returned to the ECHL, and has scored at a nearly point per game pace. I'm getting ready to get my "bust" label out.
NHL Future: Depth forward.
ETA: 3 years to get his development back on track.
NHL Comparison: Sami Pahlsson.
20. James Martin D, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
Is ineligible for the Heat's playoff roster for some incomprehensible reason. But the rules state that any injured player can be replaced by anybody, so I don't know. Has 2 goals and an assist in 23 games for the Heat.
NHL Future: Maybe as high as a 2nd pair defenseman. Likely not, though.
ETA: 4 or 5 years. Maybe less though, as he appears to be a late bloomer.
NHL Comparison: Tom Gilbert?
Sunday, 18 March 2012
Tuesday, 14 February 2012
Valentine's Day: Bad Poetry and GIMPed Images
Hello all! My eternal and undying love to you all.
Who loves Valentine's day? You'd think I wouldn't be among them. And you'd be right. But I find it is a superb day to spend in thoughtful contemplation of existence.... just like every other day. That's pretty much all I do in my free time. Which, since I have been procrastinating all my homework, is pretty much every moment I'm not in class. Go me.
Anyway, it is a day where sad intellectual types like myself will write sappy (or heart-wrenching) poetry. Which I would certainly do as well if I was able. Sadly, my lyrical talent is limited to contrived rhymes of ill portent. But here goes:
If I Could Only Write a Poem...
a sad attempt at lyricism by Jean Borje
If I could only write a poem, I'd write it for you,
To say all in words that my love would be true.
My friends would call me crazy, and they'd likely be right,
(There are times I wish that they weren't so bright).
But alas, my rhymes always fail,
And pure emotion doesn't always prevail.
So I can only hope (with perhaps a prayer),
That you're out there, somewhere...
If I could only write a poem, I'd write it for you,
To say in my words that I believe. I do.
and now that that's out of the way, here's Linkin Park.
Friday, 3 February 2012
Scouting the Flames: Top Prospects (pre-deadline)
Pretty straight forward on this one.. won't require too much preamble I don't think. Be forewarned: many of my rankings are odd, even to me.
Note: The "NHL Future:" heading refers to the full upside of the player. Every one of the players listed could finish significantly worse than their "Future" prediction.
The "NHL Comparison" heading refers to a comparison of play styles, not full talent level. I'm not saying that I think Michael Ferland will be as good as Milan Lucic, or that Markus Granlund will be an allstar like Henrik Sedin.
Notable omissions:
T.J. Brodie: no longer a prospect. He's an NHL player.
Derek Smith, Clay Wilson, Brian Connelly: legitimately replacement players/depth defensemen.
Karri Ramo: I just wasn't comfortable classifying him as a prospect. He's more like a backup goalie playing on the wrong continent.
Danny Taylor: Technically not Flames property.
Krys Kolanos: I've never heard of a 31 year old prospect.
And I probably forgot some..
1. Sven Baertschi LW, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
A competitive, shifty, offensively-minded forward from Switzerland. For his size, he's very physical, and quite strong on his skates. Though short, he has a low center of gravity, which makes him quite solid. Seems to be more of a 2-way forward than an elite offensive talent. But I like 2-way forwards.
PROS: Fairly fast, and highly intelligent. Makes good plays, especially along the boards and through the middle of the ice. He's strong for his size, and likes to play physically. Has a fairly heavy shot too.
CONS: Tends to run into trouble a little in the defensive zone. Occasionally has trouble fighting his way to scoring areas, which results in a high number of assists as opposed to goals. Thus, he depends on his linemates (*cough*Ty Rattie*cough*) a little too much.
NHL Future: A strong 2-way winger who can handle tough assignments. Used in all situations.
ETA: 1 year.
NHL Comparison: Martin Havlat.
2. Leland Irving G, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
A quick and intelligent goalie. Irving has come a long way in his ability to read the play, and has started to come out a little further in his crease. Has a great stick side, and moves very well from side to side. He is wire-thin and not particularly tall, and thus relies on his positioning to make saves. Has a tendency to over-commit to cross-crease plays. One of the AHL's best goalies.
PROS: Has quick feet and is good at reading the play. His positioning is generally quite good, and his rebound control (always a strength) has come a long way since his draft year. Has learned to play more patiently against shooters than he has in the past, while at the same time challenging them. His consistency has improved.
CONS: Doesn't possess the raw talent of most other goalies his size, so when his positional game breaks down (sometimes from fatigue, sometimes from pressure), he generally runs into trouble. Wildly inconsistent: There will be stretches where shooters couldn't get a bullet past him, and others (mercifully shorter) where he couldn't stop a beach ball. Of course, he's played behind a fairly bad team for most of his professional career.
NHL Future: The top of his game is 70 starts/year worthy. The bottom of his game is barely AHL quality. Likely a 1A or B.
ETA: he seems ready now, honestly. If he improves his consistency, 1 year.
NHL Comparison: for style, I'd say Carey Price. For talent, Dwayne Roloson.
3. Max Reinhart C, Kootenay Ice (WHL)
There are few truly exiting aspects to Reinhart's game, but there aren't any glaring weaknesses either. His 2-way game is where he truly shines, as he is one of the best defensive forwards in the Western league. He once went head-to-head against super prospect Brayden Schenn in a playoff series--and completely nullified him.
PROS: Extremely smart. He never does anything stupid. His intelligence and good decision-making allow his team to retain the puck (always a good thing). When he doesn't have the puck, he is able to read the play and find a way to take it back, whether from a direct back-check, or by cutting off a pass.
CONS: Though he's far from slow, he doesn't possess a truly threatening 2nd gear whereby he could turn around defenders. His puck handling is fairly good, but choppy and unrefined. His shot is pretty good, though it lacks any threatening velocity. His passing is crisp and clean, but he doesn't display any kind of high-end vision. In other words, there's little flashy about him. He simply doesn't make mistakes.
NHL Future: Prototypical hard-minutes center. Likely playing on a 2nd or 3rd line, but being fed tough matchups and defensive starts.
ETA: 1 maybe 2 years.
NHL Comparison: Manny Malhotra or Eric Belanger.
4. Greg Nemisz RW, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
A useful, versatile forward in the mold of David Moss. His offensive game has always been a little bit overrated (he played for one of the best Major Junior teams ever), but he has soft hands and a good shot. Not a great skater, but he's powerful on his feet, and very hard to contain when he's on. His defensive side is where his value truly comes from, though, as the Windsor Spitfires used him as a defensive forward to give the high-ish ground to the likes of Taylor Hall and Adam Henrique. Can play all forward positions.
PROS: Big and strong. Can get to a decent clip once he accelerates, and is nearly impossible to stop. Has soft hands for a player his size, and a weirdly dangerous wrist shot from the outside. A good passer, and generates lots of shots on goal.
CONS: Takes FOREVER to accelerate. His skating style can best be described as "freight train". Doesn't have great vision with the puck, and tends to disappear for long periods of time offensively.
NHL Future: A middle rotation or bottom 6 forward who plays in all situations at all positions, while adding a little offense.
ETA: 1 year or less.
NHL Comparison: the best I've ever been able to come up with is a bizarre mixture of David Moss and Ryane Clowe.
5. Bill Arnold C, Boston College (NCAA HE)
No you're not seeing things. This is a player I've liked pretty much ever since the Flames drafted him (a full 2 rounds after he was ranked, I might add. STEAL!!) and the most recent WJC just clinched it. Other than Wild prospect Jason Zucker (another really good player) he was the United States' best forward all tournament long (one of the main reasons they did so poorly, actually. Nick Bjugstad was supposed to set the stage on fire, but left all but 1 of his points until the last game). Arnold is yet another defensive forward, though he employs a far more advanced physical game than Reinhart or Nemisz.
PROS: Great hands, super awesome shot, and impossible to move from in front of the net. He's tremendously strong, and many BC highlites feature Arnold cutting to the net with 3 players hanging off his back. And he often scores on those plays. The rest of his goals are mainly tip-ins on the powerplay.
CONS: Not particularly fast and, though he's quicker than Nemisz, he does take a lot of time to get to full speed. His skating has improved a lot since he was drafted, however.
NHL Future: He once looked like a 4th or 3rd line center who would be utilized defensively, but he's starting to get the look of a 2nd line forward in the mold of David Bolland (though not so fast or skilled). At any rate, the Flames likely won't be hurting for hard-minutes forwards in the years to come.
ETA: 2 maybe 3 years, though at the rate he's going, maybe less. He's very much a project, however much I like him.
NHL Comparison: Michal Handzus.
6. Roman Horak C, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
A few months ago, having Horak this high would have surprised me. He plays a very advanced game, with pro-level (though unspectacular) skating. His offensive game relies more on linemates than his ability to get to tough areas, which at this point is good for him. His responsible defensive game was what enabled him to make the Flames team out of camp and stay for the better part of the season so far. It was luck, though, than enabled him to produce so effectively early on. For the most part, he was utilized defensively, and pretty much got his head kicked in at even strength.
PROS: Is a good skater, and is quite intelligent. Doesn't make many mistakes, and limits scoring chances against. Has fairly good hands, and his hockey sense allows him to make pretty good reads at both ends, as well as pulling off some impressive passes. His height is overstated, and thus he has a more robust frame than his stats suggest.
CONS: Not a terribly effective shooter. His faceoff ability is horrible even by Calgary Flames' standards, though this will likely improve with time. Lacks a little strength, and has trouble along the boards.
NHL Future: A useful if not terribly effective player. Most of his offense will likely come from the powerplay, assuming he sees any time on it.
ETA: 1 year or less.
NHL Comparison: There are elements of his game that make me think of Tomas Plekanec (much like Nemisz with Clowe). However, that comparison isn't really fair to either player.
7. John Gaudreau LW, Boston College (NCAA HE)
Another player I probably ranked higher than I should have, Johnny Gaudreau is one of my favourite draft selections the Flames have made in years. The reason? Darryl Sutter never would have picked him. He's a tiny (5'7" 144--probably less) winger with a ton of offensive skill and speed. If he makes the NHL (not a guarantee) he will likely need usage protection and lots of offensive zone starts. But he'll sure be fun to watch.
PROS: The buzz is he was one of the 10 most skilled players in the 2011 draft. Unlike Rocco Grimaldi, he didn't receive enough attention to overcome his size, and thus he was drafted in the 4th round. He has beyond elite hands and skating ability, and a pretty good shot too. He's scored a few goals from behind the goal line this season, as well as making Gretzky-esque passes into the slot from behind the net.
CONS: He's tiny. Very weak (though slippery). Almost no defensive ability whatsoever.
NHL Future: Uncertain, to say the least. He looks like he could be a 2nd line forward (or, to be more specific, a secondary scoring forward).
ETA: could be as much as 5 years.
NHL Comparison: Martin St. Louis? Maybe more accurate to say something like David Desharnais.
8. Markus Granlund C, HIFK (SM-liiga)
Unlike a lot of people, I didn't really think much of Granlund UNTIL I saw him play at the World Juniors. For a skilled, offensive forward, he plays a pretty simple game. He's also fairly good defensively, and saw plenty of time on Finland's penalty kill. A great passer who really shines on the powerplay.
PROS: Vision and intelligence mostly. He makes a lot of crisp, clean passes through traffic. He possesses a great release on an absolute bullet of a wrist shot.
CONS: An average-at-best skater. He accelerates fine, but his top speed is highly unimpressive (though he's actually a better skater than his older, superior at everything else brother Mikael). He often tries to do too much with his stick-handling, trying to pull a move out of a magic top hat rather than going with a safer, simpler play such as a shot on goal.
NHL Future: He could be a decent secondary scorer (maybe he'll play on a line with Gaudreau?). His defensive game seems to be developing faster than his offensive game, though, which is actually good news.
ETA: 2 or 3 years. That might be optimistic.
NHL Comparison: a smaller Henrik Sedin.
9. Michael Ferland LW, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
A skilled, physical forward from the WHL. Actually, he's pretty much the prototypical WHL forward. Not particularly fast, but not slow either. I don't know how much of his offense is generated by his own talent, since he plays on a line with point factory Mark Stone.
PROS: He's big, and he's physical. From what I've seen, he has pretty soft hands and a good shot too.
CONS: Not a natural scorer. Has a tendency (reduced of late, thankfully) to take dumb penalties. Not great defensively either, which limits his value as an NHL prospect.
NHL Future: He looks like your prototypical bottom 6 forward really. He could end up as a Tom Kostopoulos clone, or he could be the next Curtis Glencross.
ETA: 2 or 3 years, maybe more.
NHL Comparison: a smaller Milan Lucic.
10. John Ramage D, University of Wisconsin (NCAA WCHA)
In spite of his horrible season so far as the Badgers' Captain, I still have high hopes for Ramage, and I still like him a lot as a player. He's one of those defensemen who will never get his due from fans or media, but will be loved by his coach and team mates.
PROS: Fairly good mobility. For an average-sized defenseman, he has a downright vicious physical game, which is a rarity in the Flames' system at the present time. Has great leadership skills, as he is the current captain of his NCAA team, and captained the USA WJC team in 2010/11.
CONS: Though it isn't non-existent, his offensive game is pretty limited. He just isn't wired that way, though he can move the puck. He isn't the kind of defenseman who will significantly change the fortunes of a bad team.
NHL Future: A 2nd or 3rd pair stay-at-home defenseman who may or may not play shutdown minutes.
ETA: 1 or 2 years.
NHL Comparison: Andrew Ference.
11. Ryan Howse LW, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
This is a player who has disappointed even me this season, and I wasn't expecting much. I didn't think his game would translate immediately to the pro game... but I also thought he'd score more than 0 goals and 0 assists. He is--by far--the purest goal scorer in the system, and his steady statistical improvement over the years in the WHL resulted in an invite to the Canadian selection camp for the 2011 WJC. He didn't make it.
PROS: Has a great shot. Quick release, good velocity, pin-point accuracy. His hands are alright, his passing decent. Strong for his size. A fairly good skater too.
CONS: Though it has improved, he doesn't have much of a defensive game at all. He isn't physical, and has had some trouble getting to scoring areas this season. Tends to get lazy when things aren't going his way.
NHL Future: top 6 or bust.
ETA: 3, 4, 5 years. Who can guess?
NHL Comparison: Dany Heatley. Maybe there's a little Mike Cammalleri in there too.
12. Tyler Wotherspoon D, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
One of the most boring players in the CHL. And that's what I like about him. He's one of those players where nothing ever seems to happen while he's on the ice--except for the occasional big hit or fight. A shut-down defenseman through-and-though.
PROS: He's (sort-of) big and extremely strong. He isn't a natural fighter, but he can throw down with the best of them. He has hitting along the boards down to a science, and is improving at open-ice hits too. He can skate well enough to not be totally out of position when he hits. He can block shots and clear the crease. Has a pretty good slapshot too.
CONS: Not an offensive weapon. At all. He isn't going to wow anyone with great defensive plays either, as he mostly plays a "contain them until I can crush them" style.
NHL Future: There isn't much chance he won't make it. Of course, there isn't much chance he will be more than a 3rd pair defenseman either.
ETA: 3 years.
NHL Comparison: Mike Komisarek.
13. Paul Byron C, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
A small and super-fast forward who plays bigger than he is. He has been mostly a replacement player in the NHL so far, though he has contributed 2 goals to the Calgary Flames this season. Much better suited to the AHL for now, where he has been a steady offensive contributor to the Heat.
PROS: He's very, very fast. Pretty good hands, and good passing skills. Has a surprisingly robust physical game for such a small player.
CONS: Not a very good shooter. Isn't talented enough for a true scoring role, nor is he yet defensively accomplished enough for a defensive role. Not very strong, and easily out-muscled. Appears to be better suited to the wing than center.
NHL Future: A middle rotation winger who is lauded for his speed if nothing else.
ETA: 1 year.
NHL Comparison: a smaller Blake Comeau.
14. Chris Breen D, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
A huge defenseman with virtually no offensive upside whatsoever. His physical game is surprisingly tentative, and he is, predictably, quite slow, though he is a good skater for his size. Unlike many people, I never really bought into the hype from his rapid development. It isn't that I doubt what the scouts are saying. It's that I've never really seen anything from him that suggests he'll be a significant player. However, when he was an OHL player, he was regarded as a long shot to even be an ECHL regular. So what do I know?
PROS: His size. He is quite strong, and his long reach prevents forwards--even fast ones--from easily skating around him. He also possesses a strong, accurate point shot. He's also rather mobile for his size.
CONS: In spite of his size, his physical game can best be described as "gentle". He has no offensive skill to speak of.
NHL Future: Likely a bottom pair stay-at-home defenseman at most. Like Keith Aulie.
ETA: 1 maybe 2 years. He really doesn't have a lot of development to do.
NHL Comparison: Hal Gill.
15. Joni Ortio G, TPS (SM-liiga)
A talented, inconsistent goaltender from Finland. In typical Finnish form, he has a good glove hand and stick. His side-to-side movement and rebound control have improved quite a bit since he was drafted. He has, unfortunately, been hurting for icetime the last few years, especially this season, as he's been caught behind first Leland Irving and then Danny Taylor in the Heat crease. Thus, he was loaned back to his Finnish team.
PROS: Great reflexes and flexibility. When he's on his game, his movement is controlled and percise, enabling him to make full use of his talent.
CONS: Maddeningly inconsistent. Has fragile confidence, and when shattered, his movement becomes floppy and erratic.
NHL Future: He's talented, but his confidence is just too fragile. It's too hard to figure right now, so I'll say a backup goalie.
ETA: too long to figure.
NHL Comparison: Miikka Kiprusoff.
16. Joey Leach D, Kootenay Ice (WHL)
The only time Leach has impressed me at all from watching him was the first game of the Young Stars tournament. In that game, he and John Negrin were the best players on the ice who weren't San Jose goaltenders. Leach pretty much disappeared for the rest of the tourney, while Negrin continued to be one of the Flames' best players.
PROS: Fairly big and strong, he plays a simple game. Defensively reliable, and clears the crease well. Can also move the puck to a degree, and is good at keeping it in on the offensive blueline.
CONS: Very slow. His skating is erratic, sketchy, and inefficient. Doesn't play particularly physically for a defender his size.
NHL Future: Bottom pair shutdown defenseman.
ETA: 5 years. He has a lot of refinement to do.
NHL Comparision: Cory Sarich.
17. Laurent Brossoit G, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)
A big goalie out of the WHL who has been a bit of a surprise so far this season. His personal stats have been among the top 10 in the WHL all season long, and he's 3rd in the league in wins. He has very quick feet, which is unusual for a goaltender of his size, but he also tends to move around a little too much in the crease and, as a result, can occasionally lose his net.
PROS: Is big, and very quick for his size. He moves side-to-side better than many goalies smaller than he. Possesses a quick glove hand.
CONS: Relies more on his height to make saves than his positioning, which is sub-par. Is a little inconsistent, which is to be expected from a 6th round pick. Doesn't really challenge shooters.
NHL Future: Goalies are too hard, especially this soon after they were drafted.
ETA: 8 years?
NHL Comparison: Roberto Luongo.
18. Lance Bouma LW, Calgary Flames (NHL)
There isn't anything truly interesting about Bouma. A former captain of the Vancouver Giants, he is one of those players who never seems to stop working.
PROS: Hard-working and defensively responsible. Employs a strong physical game.
CONS: Doesn't have much on the offensive side, though his work ethic allows him to send a lot of pucks at the net.
NHL Future: 4th line forward.
ETA: imminent.
NHL Comparison: Tom Kostopoulos.
19. Mitch Wahl C, Utah Grizzlies (ECHL)
A talented 2way player whose career has pretty much been completely derailed because of the 3 concussions he suffered last year. He also has the dubious distinction of being the only ECHL player who made this list. He was never a flashy player, but he got the job done offensively. He also possesses a hard slapshot and good passing skills.
PROS: Good defensive play, and enough vision to contribute as a playmaker. Isn't afraid of forcing himself into high-traffic areas to score goals.
CONS: Lacks a good deal of strength in his wire-thin frame. Though he's a capable skater, he lacks high-end speed which would enable him to be more effective offensively.
NHL Future: Hard to figure. He once looked like he might be a 2nd line forward.
ETA: 3 years to get his development back on track.
NHL Comparison: Sami Pahlsson.
20. James Martin D, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
Kind of an understated player, but he gets the job done. Pretty mobile, but there isn't a lot of flash to his game. He concentrated perhaps too much on his offensive game in his draft-eligible seasons, which led to him not being drafted. However, last season he suddenly developed a highly effective shut-down game alongside Joey Leach, which prompted the Flames to give him a tryout in the preseason, followed by an Entry-Level contract. He looks like a good all-around defenseman right now. If he manages to stay healthy, he might end up being John Negrin done right.
PROS: He's mobile and skilled. Owns a good shot from the point, and generally makes good decisions both with and without the puck.
CONS: Not very physical, and is occasionally easily beaten by creative forwards.
NHL Future: Maybe as high as a 2nd pair defenseman. Likely not, though.
ETA: 4 or 5 years. Maybe less though, as he appears to be a late bloomer.
NHL Comparison: Tom Gilbert?
Note: The "NHL Future:" heading refers to the full upside of the player. Every one of the players listed could finish significantly worse than their "Future" prediction.
The "NHL Comparison" heading refers to a comparison of play styles, not full talent level. I'm not saying that I think Michael Ferland will be as good as Milan Lucic, or that Markus Granlund will be an allstar like Henrik Sedin.
Notable omissions:
T.J. Brodie: no longer a prospect. He's an NHL player.
Derek Smith, Clay Wilson, Brian Connelly: legitimately replacement players/depth defensemen.
Karri Ramo: I just wasn't comfortable classifying him as a prospect. He's more like a backup goalie playing on the wrong continent.
Danny Taylor: Technically not Flames property.
Krys Kolanos: I've never heard of a 31 year old prospect.
And I probably forgot some..
A competitive, shifty, offensively-minded forward from Switzerland. For his size, he's very physical, and quite strong on his skates. Though short, he has a low center of gravity, which makes him quite solid. Seems to be more of a 2-way forward than an elite offensive talent. But I like 2-way forwards.
PROS: Fairly fast, and highly intelligent. Makes good plays, especially along the boards and through the middle of the ice. He's strong for his size, and likes to play physically. Has a fairly heavy shot too.
CONS: Tends to run into trouble a little in the defensive zone. Occasionally has trouble fighting his way to scoring areas, which results in a high number of assists as opposed to goals. Thus, he depends on his linemates (*cough*Ty Rattie*cough*) a little too much.
NHL Future: A strong 2-way winger who can handle tough assignments. Used in all situations.
ETA: 1 year.
NHL Comparison: Martin Havlat.
A quick and intelligent goalie. Irving has come a long way in his ability to read the play, and has started to come out a little further in his crease. Has a great stick side, and moves very well from side to side. He is wire-thin and not particularly tall, and thus relies on his positioning to make saves. Has a tendency to over-commit to cross-crease plays. One of the AHL's best goalies.
PROS: Has quick feet and is good at reading the play. His positioning is generally quite good, and his rebound control (always a strength) has come a long way since his draft year. Has learned to play more patiently against shooters than he has in the past, while at the same time challenging them. His consistency has improved.
CONS: Doesn't possess the raw talent of most other goalies his size, so when his positional game breaks down (sometimes from fatigue, sometimes from pressure), he generally runs into trouble. Wildly inconsistent: There will be stretches where shooters couldn't get a bullet past him, and others (mercifully shorter) where he couldn't stop a beach ball. Of course, he's played behind a fairly bad team for most of his professional career.
NHL Future: The top of his game is 70 starts/year worthy. The bottom of his game is barely AHL quality. Likely a 1A or B.
ETA: he seems ready now, honestly. If he improves his consistency, 1 year.
NHL Comparison: for style, I'd say Carey Price. For talent, Dwayne Roloson.
There are few truly exiting aspects to Reinhart's game, but there aren't any glaring weaknesses either. His 2-way game is where he truly shines, as he is one of the best defensive forwards in the Western league. He once went head-to-head against super prospect Brayden Schenn in a playoff series--and completely nullified him.
PROS: Extremely smart. He never does anything stupid. His intelligence and good decision-making allow his team to retain the puck (always a good thing). When he doesn't have the puck, he is able to read the play and find a way to take it back, whether from a direct back-check, or by cutting off a pass.
CONS: Though he's far from slow, he doesn't possess a truly threatening 2nd gear whereby he could turn around defenders. His puck handling is fairly good, but choppy and unrefined. His shot is pretty good, though it lacks any threatening velocity. His passing is crisp and clean, but he doesn't display any kind of high-end vision. In other words, there's little flashy about him. He simply doesn't make mistakes.
NHL Future: Prototypical hard-minutes center. Likely playing on a 2nd or 3rd line, but being fed tough matchups and defensive starts.
ETA: 1 maybe 2 years.
NHL Comparison: Manny Malhotra or Eric Belanger.
A useful, versatile forward in the mold of David Moss. His offensive game has always been a little bit overrated (he played for one of the best Major Junior teams ever), but he has soft hands and a good shot. Not a great skater, but he's powerful on his feet, and very hard to contain when he's on. His defensive side is where his value truly comes from, though, as the Windsor Spitfires used him as a defensive forward to give the high-ish ground to the likes of Taylor Hall and Adam Henrique. Can play all forward positions.
PROS: Big and strong. Can get to a decent clip once he accelerates, and is nearly impossible to stop. Has soft hands for a player his size, and a weirdly dangerous wrist shot from the outside. A good passer, and generates lots of shots on goal.
CONS: Takes FOREVER to accelerate. His skating style can best be described as "freight train". Doesn't have great vision with the puck, and tends to disappear for long periods of time offensively.
NHL Future: A middle rotation or bottom 6 forward who plays in all situations at all positions, while adding a little offense.
ETA: 1 year or less.
NHL Comparison: the best I've ever been able to come up with is a bizarre mixture of David Moss and Ryane Clowe.
No you're not seeing things. This is a player I've liked pretty much ever since the Flames drafted him (a full 2 rounds after he was ranked, I might add. STEAL!!) and the most recent WJC just clinched it. Other than Wild prospect Jason Zucker (another really good player) he was the United States' best forward all tournament long (one of the main reasons they did so poorly, actually. Nick Bjugstad was supposed to set the stage on fire, but left all but 1 of his points until the last game). Arnold is yet another defensive forward, though he employs a far more advanced physical game than Reinhart or Nemisz.
PROS: Great hands, super awesome shot, and impossible to move from in front of the net. He's tremendously strong, and many BC highlites feature Arnold cutting to the net with 3 players hanging off his back. And he often scores on those plays. The rest of his goals are mainly tip-ins on the powerplay.
CONS: Not particularly fast and, though he's quicker than Nemisz, he does take a lot of time to get to full speed. His skating has improved a lot since he was drafted, however.
NHL Future: He once looked like a 4th or 3rd line center who would be utilized defensively, but he's starting to get the look of a 2nd line forward in the mold of David Bolland (though not so fast or skilled). At any rate, the Flames likely won't be hurting for hard-minutes forwards in the years to come.
ETA: 2 maybe 3 years, though at the rate he's going, maybe less. He's very much a project, however much I like him.
NHL Comparison: Michal Handzus.
6. Roman Horak C, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
A few months ago, having Horak this high would have surprised me. He plays a very advanced game, with pro-level (though unspectacular) skating. His offensive game relies more on linemates than his ability to get to tough areas, which at this point is good for him. His responsible defensive game was what enabled him to make the Flames team out of camp and stay for the better part of the season so far. It was luck, though, than enabled him to produce so effectively early on. For the most part, he was utilized defensively, and pretty much got his head kicked in at even strength.
PROS: Is a good skater, and is quite intelligent. Doesn't make many mistakes, and limits scoring chances against. Has fairly good hands, and his hockey sense allows him to make pretty good reads at both ends, as well as pulling off some impressive passes. His height is overstated, and thus he has a more robust frame than his stats suggest.
CONS: Not a terribly effective shooter. His faceoff ability is horrible even by Calgary Flames' standards, though this will likely improve with time. Lacks a little strength, and has trouble along the boards.
NHL Future: A useful if not terribly effective player. Most of his offense will likely come from the powerplay, assuming he sees any time on it.
ETA: 1 year or less.
NHL Comparison: There are elements of his game that make me think of Tomas Plekanec (much like Nemisz with Clowe). However, that comparison isn't really fair to either player.
7. John Gaudreau LW, Boston College (NCAA HE)
Another player I probably ranked higher than I should have, Johnny Gaudreau is one of my favourite draft selections the Flames have made in years. The reason? Darryl Sutter never would have picked him. He's a tiny (5'7" 144--probably less) winger with a ton of offensive skill and speed. If he makes the NHL (not a guarantee) he will likely need usage protection and lots of offensive zone starts. But he'll sure be fun to watch.
PROS: The buzz is he was one of the 10 most skilled players in the 2011 draft. Unlike Rocco Grimaldi, he didn't receive enough attention to overcome his size, and thus he was drafted in the 4th round. He has beyond elite hands and skating ability, and a pretty good shot too. He's scored a few goals from behind the goal line this season, as well as making Gretzky-esque passes into the slot from behind the net.
CONS: He's tiny. Very weak (though slippery). Almost no defensive ability whatsoever.
NHL Future: Uncertain, to say the least. He looks like he could be a 2nd line forward (or, to be more specific, a secondary scoring forward).
ETA: could be as much as 5 years.
NHL Comparison: Martin St. Louis? Maybe more accurate to say something like David Desharnais.
8. Markus Granlund C, HIFK (SM-liiga)
Unlike a lot of people, I didn't really think much of Granlund UNTIL I saw him play at the World Juniors. For a skilled, offensive forward, he plays a pretty simple game. He's also fairly good defensively, and saw plenty of time on Finland's penalty kill. A great passer who really shines on the powerplay.
PROS: Vision and intelligence mostly. He makes a lot of crisp, clean passes through traffic. He possesses a great release on an absolute bullet of a wrist shot.
CONS: An average-at-best skater. He accelerates fine, but his top speed is highly unimpressive (though he's actually a better skater than his older, superior at everything else brother Mikael). He often tries to do too much with his stick-handling, trying to pull a move out of a magic top hat rather than going with a safer, simpler play such as a shot on goal.
NHL Future: He could be a decent secondary scorer (maybe he'll play on a line with Gaudreau?). His defensive game seems to be developing faster than his offensive game, though, which is actually good news.
ETA: 2 or 3 years. That might be optimistic.
NHL Comparison: a smaller Henrik Sedin.
9. Michael Ferland LW, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
A skilled, physical forward from the WHL. Actually, he's pretty much the prototypical WHL forward. Not particularly fast, but not slow either. I don't know how much of his offense is generated by his own talent, since he plays on a line with point factory Mark Stone.
PROS: He's big, and he's physical. From what I've seen, he has pretty soft hands and a good shot too.
CONS: Not a natural scorer. Has a tendency (reduced of late, thankfully) to take dumb penalties. Not great defensively either, which limits his value as an NHL prospect.
NHL Future: He looks like your prototypical bottom 6 forward really. He could end up as a Tom Kostopoulos clone, or he could be the next Curtis Glencross.
ETA: 2 or 3 years, maybe more.
NHL Comparison: a smaller Milan Lucic.
10. John Ramage D, University of Wisconsin (NCAA WCHA)
In spite of his horrible season so far as the Badgers' Captain, I still have high hopes for Ramage, and I still like him a lot as a player. He's one of those defensemen who will never get his due from fans or media, but will be loved by his coach and team mates.
PROS: Fairly good mobility. For an average-sized defenseman, he has a downright vicious physical game, which is a rarity in the Flames' system at the present time. Has great leadership skills, as he is the current captain of his NCAA team, and captained the USA WJC team in 2010/11.
CONS: Though it isn't non-existent, his offensive game is pretty limited. He just isn't wired that way, though he can move the puck. He isn't the kind of defenseman who will significantly change the fortunes of a bad team.
NHL Future: A 2nd or 3rd pair stay-at-home defenseman who may or may not play shutdown minutes.
ETA: 1 or 2 years.
NHL Comparison: Andrew Ference.
11. Ryan Howse LW, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
This is a player who has disappointed even me this season, and I wasn't expecting much. I didn't think his game would translate immediately to the pro game... but I also thought he'd score more than 0 goals and 0 assists. He is--by far--the purest goal scorer in the system, and his steady statistical improvement over the years in the WHL resulted in an invite to the Canadian selection camp for the 2011 WJC. He didn't make it.
PROS: Has a great shot. Quick release, good velocity, pin-point accuracy. His hands are alright, his passing decent. Strong for his size. A fairly good skater too.
CONS: Though it has improved, he doesn't have much of a defensive game at all. He isn't physical, and has had some trouble getting to scoring areas this season. Tends to get lazy when things aren't going his way.
NHL Future: top 6 or bust.
ETA: 3, 4, 5 years. Who can guess?
NHL Comparison: Dany Heatley. Maybe there's a little Mike Cammalleri in there too.
12. Tyler Wotherspoon D, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
One of the most boring players in the CHL. And that's what I like about him. He's one of those players where nothing ever seems to happen while he's on the ice--except for the occasional big hit or fight. A shut-down defenseman through-and-though.
PROS: He's (sort-of) big and extremely strong. He isn't a natural fighter, but he can throw down with the best of them. He has hitting along the boards down to a science, and is improving at open-ice hits too. He can skate well enough to not be totally out of position when he hits. He can block shots and clear the crease. Has a pretty good slapshot too.
CONS: Not an offensive weapon. At all. He isn't going to wow anyone with great defensive plays either, as he mostly plays a "contain them until I can crush them" style.
NHL Future: There isn't much chance he won't make it. Of course, there isn't much chance he will be more than a 3rd pair defenseman either.
ETA: 3 years.
NHL Comparison: Mike Komisarek.
13. Paul Byron C, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
A small and super-fast forward who plays bigger than he is. He has been mostly a replacement player in the NHL so far, though he has contributed 2 goals to the Calgary Flames this season. Much better suited to the AHL for now, where he has been a steady offensive contributor to the Heat.
PROS: He's very, very fast. Pretty good hands, and good passing skills. Has a surprisingly robust physical game for such a small player.
CONS: Not a very good shooter. Isn't talented enough for a true scoring role, nor is he yet defensively accomplished enough for a defensive role. Not very strong, and easily out-muscled. Appears to be better suited to the wing than center.
NHL Future: A middle rotation winger who is lauded for his speed if nothing else.
ETA: 1 year.
NHL Comparison: a smaller Blake Comeau.
14. Chris Breen D, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
A huge defenseman with virtually no offensive upside whatsoever. His physical game is surprisingly tentative, and he is, predictably, quite slow, though he is a good skater for his size. Unlike many people, I never really bought into the hype from his rapid development. It isn't that I doubt what the scouts are saying. It's that I've never really seen anything from him that suggests he'll be a significant player. However, when he was an OHL player, he was regarded as a long shot to even be an ECHL regular. So what do I know?
PROS: His size. He is quite strong, and his long reach prevents forwards--even fast ones--from easily skating around him. He also possesses a strong, accurate point shot. He's also rather mobile for his size.
CONS: In spite of his size, his physical game can best be described as "gentle". He has no offensive skill to speak of.
NHL Future: Likely a bottom pair stay-at-home defenseman at most. Like Keith Aulie.
ETA: 1 maybe 2 years. He really doesn't have a lot of development to do.
NHL Comparison: Hal Gill.
15. Joni Ortio G, TPS (SM-liiga)
A talented, inconsistent goaltender from Finland. In typical Finnish form, he has a good glove hand and stick. His side-to-side movement and rebound control have improved quite a bit since he was drafted. He has, unfortunately, been hurting for icetime the last few years, especially this season, as he's been caught behind first Leland Irving and then Danny Taylor in the Heat crease. Thus, he was loaned back to his Finnish team.
PROS: Great reflexes and flexibility. When he's on his game, his movement is controlled and percise, enabling him to make full use of his talent.
CONS: Maddeningly inconsistent. Has fragile confidence, and when shattered, his movement becomes floppy and erratic.
NHL Future: He's talented, but his confidence is just too fragile. It's too hard to figure right now, so I'll say a backup goalie.
ETA: too long to figure.
NHL Comparison: Miikka Kiprusoff.
16. Joey Leach D, Kootenay Ice (WHL)
The only time Leach has impressed me at all from watching him was the first game of the Young Stars tournament. In that game, he and John Negrin were the best players on the ice who weren't San Jose goaltenders. Leach pretty much disappeared for the rest of the tourney, while Negrin continued to be one of the Flames' best players.
PROS: Fairly big and strong, he plays a simple game. Defensively reliable, and clears the crease well. Can also move the puck to a degree, and is good at keeping it in on the offensive blueline.
CONS: Very slow. His skating is erratic, sketchy, and inefficient. Doesn't play particularly physically for a defender his size.
NHL Future: Bottom pair shutdown defenseman.
ETA: 5 years. He has a lot of refinement to do.
NHL Comparision: Cory Sarich.
17. Laurent Brossoit G, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)
A big goalie out of the WHL who has been a bit of a surprise so far this season. His personal stats have been among the top 10 in the WHL all season long, and he's 3rd in the league in wins. He has very quick feet, which is unusual for a goaltender of his size, but he also tends to move around a little too much in the crease and, as a result, can occasionally lose his net.
PROS: Is big, and very quick for his size. He moves side-to-side better than many goalies smaller than he. Possesses a quick glove hand.
CONS: Relies more on his height to make saves than his positioning, which is sub-par. Is a little inconsistent, which is to be expected from a 6th round pick. Doesn't really challenge shooters.
NHL Future: Goalies are too hard, especially this soon after they were drafted.
ETA: 8 years?
NHL Comparison: Roberto Luongo.
18. Lance Bouma LW, Calgary Flames (NHL)
There isn't anything truly interesting about Bouma. A former captain of the Vancouver Giants, he is one of those players who never seems to stop working.
PROS: Hard-working and defensively responsible. Employs a strong physical game.
CONS: Doesn't have much on the offensive side, though his work ethic allows him to send a lot of pucks at the net.
NHL Future: 4th line forward.
ETA: imminent.
NHL Comparison: Tom Kostopoulos.
19. Mitch Wahl C, Utah Grizzlies (ECHL)
A talented 2way player whose career has pretty much been completely derailed because of the 3 concussions he suffered last year. He also has the dubious distinction of being the only ECHL player who made this list. He was never a flashy player, but he got the job done offensively. He also possesses a hard slapshot and good passing skills.
PROS: Good defensive play, and enough vision to contribute as a playmaker. Isn't afraid of forcing himself into high-traffic areas to score goals.
CONS: Lacks a good deal of strength in his wire-thin frame. Though he's a capable skater, he lacks high-end speed which would enable him to be more effective offensively.
NHL Future: Hard to figure. He once looked like he might be a 2nd line forward.
ETA: 3 years to get his development back on track.
NHL Comparison: Sami Pahlsson.
20. James Martin D, Abbotsford Heat (AHL)
Kind of an understated player, but he gets the job done. Pretty mobile, but there isn't a lot of flash to his game. He concentrated perhaps too much on his offensive game in his draft-eligible seasons, which led to him not being drafted. However, last season he suddenly developed a highly effective shut-down game alongside Joey Leach, which prompted the Flames to give him a tryout in the preseason, followed by an Entry-Level contract. He looks like a good all-around defenseman right now. If he manages to stay healthy, he might end up being John Negrin done right.
PROS: He's mobile and skilled. Owns a good shot from the point, and generally makes good decisions both with and without the puck.
CONS: Not very physical, and is occasionally easily beaten by creative forwards.
NHL Future: Maybe as high as a 2nd pair defenseman. Likely not, though.
ETA: 4 or 5 years. Maybe less though, as he appears to be a late bloomer.
NHL Comparison: Tom Gilbert?
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Kill the Messenger: What SOPA and PIPA Really Stand For...
The controversial Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA for short) Has actually been rejected by President Barack Obama (yet another reason to like him). The Protect Intellectual Property Act (PIPA) I'm not sure about, but the two are frequently mentioned in the same breath. If these bills are passed in the United States, that's basically the end of youtube : SOPA explicity states that streaming of content will be penalized by 5 years in prison. Also, any allegedly "infringing" site will be blocked from search engines (just what criterion are applied to consider a site "infringing" is kept quite vague). Harvard constitutional law Professor Laurence H. Tribe went as far as to say that passing of SOPA and PIPA would violate the first amendment.
Look, I'm all for protecting of copyrights and all... but this "Intellectual Property" thing is a little subjective for it to have a law attached to it. For example, if you were to use a sentence that sounded a lot like one I had used (say in this blog) I could claim that you infringed upon my intellectual property. And I would be right, regardless of whether you knew what you were doing or not.
The thing is, everything you read, hear, learn, etc. changes the way you think in some manner. Our personal intellect is the sum of everything we have experienced. Our views on... well, everything are influenced by our experiences; we form opinions based on the arguments of others. There's a term for this: an informed opinion. How should I be aware that I'm using a sentence structure that's vaguely similar to that used by Robert Jordan (one of my favourite authors by the way)? It's entirely possible that I am, but did I steal his writing style? Certainly not consciously.
People like to bring up the "slippery slope" argument to avoid changing things. Where do we draw the line? It applies to this too. If a site (like wikipedia or youtube) is unable to post the content of other's works (they still give credit to the original source, by the way) where does it end? I just used the letter "d", is that the intellectual property of Webster's Dictionary? What about the name "Webster's Dictionary"? Am I infringing on their rights by putting that here on my blog? What about something slightly less stupid? How about the name of a character from a book. Let's take the name Harry Potter. What if someone somewhere names their main character for their new book "Harry". Is that infringing on J.K. Rowling's works? What if they use the last name "Potter" for another character? Better lock 'em up.
To my readers in the USA (Yes, I am aware you exist!) if any of you happen to belong to Congress BLOCK THIS STUPID LEGISLATION!!!! And if you're not in Congress, sign a petition or something. The Super Obnoxious Piracy Act (SOPA) and the Paranoid Intellectual Protection Act (PIPA) must be stopped!
Maybe they'll lock me up for my super creative acronyms.
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| A friend of mine drew my attention to this one. |
Guess where I got the info for this. That's right, WIKI-fricking-PEDIA!!!!
Thursday, 12 January 2012
You Can't Handle the Stupid: The Greatest Prank Ever Pulled
The 2012 "Prediction"
People have long been fascinated by the Mayan calendar. And for good reason, I suppose. It's extremely accurate, not requiring the 1 day adjustment (leap year) every 4 years that ours does. Because of this, people assume that the Maya had some kind of mystical power, or foresight (I've even heard of some theories involving extra-terrestrial influence). Because, how could people who lived that long ago be that clever? We've come a long way. They didn't even have computers! Well, 4000 years is absolutely nothing in evolutionary terms. People back then were just as smart as we are.
The Birth of a Ridiculously Complicated Timepiece [1]
But of course, they needed to start the calendar somewhere. So instead of starting it, quite logically, on the day it was made, they decided to set the start date at some partially random point in the past (it corresponds to August 11, 3114 BCE). I say partially random because the date (August 11) isn't precisely random, being the day of Passover in Mesoamerica at that time. The year, however, is completely 100% arbitrary. In fact, it's about 200 years before the Maya even existed as a culture. It is believed that this was done to show the greatness of the King and his family, saying that they had led the people for all that time or some such egotistical thing. Now, it's completely coincidental that the Long Count which "started" August 11, 3114 BCE ends on December 21, 2012 CE. After that, the next Long Count begins, and the cycle starts anew. So no, the calendar doesn't END on December 21, 2012 CE. Jeeze.
The Catastrophe Myth [1]
But of course that couldn't be the end of it. There would have to be something mystical about the turnover of a Long Count, wouldn't there? Otherwise it would be boring. So, the Maya created the legend that each Long Count was preceded by a great catastrophe. The last one was a big, world-wide flood. How they could possibly know that (assuming it's true, which it isn't) is beyond me. So what happens on December 21? The Maya are strangely silent about that.
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| The last page of the Dresden Codex depicts a sky caiman barfing water onto the land |
The Best Pranksters Ever Didn't Even Realize the Great Trick They Pulled On Us
It's a shame really. If they were anything like me, knowing they had just created the means for illiciting mass panic in 3000 years (or so) would have given them a kick.
Remember that the Maya couldn't even foresee their own destruction at the hands of the Conquistadors. They really didn't see that coming, did they? Whoo boy. We don't need some ancient, doomed culture to predict our downfall, anyway. We're doing a fine job of destroying ourselves on our own, thank you very much.
[1]: Much of the specific information fittingly gleaned from a magazine called "The Maya" (from the editors of Archaeology)
Saturday, 24 December 2011
You Can't Handle the Stupid: Mangled Poetry (Merry Christmas!)
'Twas the night before Christmas, in the depths of the house
A strange creature was stealing the plump christmas grouse.
The fat bird was thrust in a sack with care,
In the hope that it wouldn't be noticed in there.
The creature then opened the sweet-storing sheds,
Tossing boxes of chocolates into the threads.
And mamma in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap,
Heard not a whisper, in our long winter’s nap.
When below in the house there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
Out through the door I flew like a flash,
I ran down the steps, only to fall with a crash.
For you see, the creature, for fear of the snow
Had been trying to steal our snow-plow below.
When no way to open the garage would appear,
The creature knocked it over--using eight tiny reindeer!
Taken from a little old driver, so lively and quick,
I knew in a moment it must be St Nick.
More rapid than eagles his curses they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name!
"Now Dasher! now, Dancer! now, Prancer and Vixen!
Stop, Comet! Stop, Cupid! Stop, Donner and Blitzen!
Help not that stranger topple the wall!
Now dash away! Dash away! Dash away all!"
As the creature snapped reins, and urged them to fly,
The reindeer paid no attention to the guy.
So on to the garage door, the coursers they flew,
With the sleigh full of Toys, and poor St Nicholas too.
And then, of a sudden, came a sound cold and aloof
The pounding and stepping of each little hoof.
As I drew in my head, and was turning around,
Down the garage came, with an awful loud sound.
And there was St. Nick, from his head to his foot,
Covered by a layer of ashes and soot.
A bundle of Toys he had flung on his back,
Was so shredded and broken it looked not like a sack.
His eyes--how they flamed! his fury: hail-mary!
His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!
His droll little mouth was drawn tight like a bow,
And the beard, under soot, was as white as the snow.
The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth,
And the smoke, it encircled his head like a wreath.
He had a broad face and a little round belly,
That shook as he swore, like a bowlful of jelly!
He was chubby and plump, a right furious old elf,
And I laughed when I saw him, in spite of myself!
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,
Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread.
He spoke not a word to me, but went straight to his work,
And gave the creature to know, he was a right-nasty jerk.
And laying his finger aside of his nose,
Up the chimney, the creature rose!
He shrieked and clawed, but with a low, dejected whistle,
Away the monster flew like the down of a thistle.
But I heard him exclaim, 'ere he drove out of sight,
"Crappy Christmas to all, and to all a good-fright!"
Sunday, 18 December 2011
Scouting the Flames: December
People need to stop thinking trading Bouwmeester is a good idea. Right now.
Poor Mikael Backlund has been the victim of some atrocious luck. The team only scores on roughly 4-5% of its shots while he's on the ice. To put that in perspective, the NHL average is something like 8%.
Derek Smith seems to really have something when he has a decent d-partner (in other words, not Babchuk). That said, he isn't a top 4 defenseman, and the Flames need Giordano back in spite of the implication where T.J. Brodie is concerned.
The Flames can't seem to find a bottom pair dman to play with Brodie. On that note, I believe Joe Piskula is still on the team. What's up with that?
Chris Butler's play has slipped somewhat recently, though he showed some signs of life the other night against Florida.
Leland Irving!!! that is all.
Roman Horak has been warming the bench a lot lately in light of the play of Brendan Morrison. I wonder how BMo's direct promotion to the 2nd line affects Matt Stajan.
In spite of the stigma, Stajan has been not awful. In fact, there have been many games where, if not for the play of Backlund, I would have liked Stajan to get more ice time. Oh well.
And now, for the Flames' 3 stars so far this season:
Poor Mikael Backlund has been the victim of some atrocious luck. The team only scores on roughly 4-5% of its shots while he's on the ice. To put that in perspective, the NHL average is something like 8%.
Derek Smith seems to really have something when he has a decent d-partner (in other words, not Babchuk). That said, he isn't a top 4 defenseman, and the Flames need Giordano back in spite of the implication where T.J. Brodie is concerned.
The Flames can't seem to find a bottom pair dman to play with Brodie. On that note, I believe Joe Piskula is still on the team. What's up with that?
Chris Butler's play has slipped somewhat recently, though he showed some signs of life the other night against Florida.
Leland Irving!!! that is all.
Roman Horak has been warming the bench a lot lately in light of the play of Brendan Morrison. I wonder how BMo's direct promotion to the 2nd line affects Matt Stajan.
In spite of the stigma, Stajan has been not awful. In fact, there have been many games where, if not for the play of Backlund, I would have liked Stajan to get more ice time. Oh well.
And now, for the Flames' 3 stars so far this season:
- Miikka Kiprusoff -- Duh. I mean, really, who needs this explained?
- Olli Jokinen -- With the possible exception of Backlund (it would be him if not for the paltry 3 points) Olli has been by far the Flames' most consistent forward--perhaps the most consistent performer other than Kiprusoff.
- Jay Bouwmeester -- You had to see this coming. Really, his importance to this team can't be over-stated.
The System
Abbotsford
In spite of the calling up of Irving, Joni Ortio hasn't played a minute of hockey since November, and has started exactly 1 game. I understand the desire to win (and, Ortio's numbers so far don't really inspire confidence) but the Flames have a vested interest in the way Joni's development goes... not so much for this Danny Taylor guy, or whatever his name is. He's getting the starts, but every game he plays is lost development time that would be better spent on the goalie the Flames actually drafted, especially since Taylor will likely be gone after this season anyway. This is really the only decision of Troy Ward's (other than Russ Sinkewich's inclusion on the roster in lieu of James Martin) that has bothered me. The Heat are a good team, they can afford to have their goalie flounder for a few games to find his legs. And when he (Ortio) does, he's more talented than Taylor anyway. It will end up benefiting the team over time. \rant.
By the way, the Abbotsford Heat have won 6 straight games (actually, as of the writing of this sentence, that streak has been stopped by an overtime loss to the Hamilton Bulldogs), in spite of a) the loss of their best goalie and b) the sudden disappearance of Greg Nemisz's scoring touch (without a point in 6 games, 7 if one includes his cup of coffee with the Flames (2 Heat games) which brings the grand total to 8 AHL games without a point from Nemisz).
**Stupid re-alignment** The Heat are 3rd in the "West Division". By some astonishing twist of fate, that makes them 3rd in the entire AHL as well.
Elsewhere
Unsurprisingly, Max Reinhart and Michael Ferland did not make the Canadian Junior squad. However, the signs are looking increasingly good for a player I had initially written off. Because of an injury to Rocco Grimaldi and the surprising (and ill-advised) unclusion of Jarred Knight by the United States, Johnny Gaudreau of the Boston College Eagles actually looks like he just might make the American team. In order to make the roster, Gaudreau has to beat a mere 4 players. Those 4 are Josh Archibald, Connor Brickley, Austin Czarnik, and Austin Watson, with a reasonably good chance at beating Kenny Agostino as well. I'm not saying Gaudreau is a lock, but his chances went from 0 to about 53%, especially considering how much more talented he is than any of those others. He is, however, quite small. Even so, his chances are much better than I thought.
The Flames, though, are guaranteed no less than 3 prospects in the world Juniors. They are Sven Baertschi (Switzerland), Markus Granlund (Finland), and Bill Arnold (United States). Oh snap, who called it? Go me.
Patrick Holland has hit a hot streak (about time). John Ramage has no points since my last post, and has accrued a staggeringly bad -11 rating. I know +/- is mostly a garbage stat, and he plays for a pretty bad team, but come on. He's a much better player than that putrid rating.
Nothing else of note is going on.
And now, to watch the Flames flail it out against the Blackhawks.
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